A sure thing in hiring? That’s a sales pitch, not a hiring strategy.

There is no such thing as a guaranteed hire. Life events can put a quick spin on even the most optimistic sure thing. Anyone who has hired long enough has seen it happen. That doesn’t mean hiring is random. With disciplined qualification in the right areas, you can meaningfully hedge the bet and improve the odds.

• Can they do the job?
  • This should be the easiest determination. Skills, experience, and past performance leave evidence. If you miss here, it’s not timing or culture- it’s poor hiring discipline.
• Will they fit the culture?
  • Interviews are performances on both sides. Candidates present their best version. Companies do the same. Culture mismatches rarely explode early; they erode pace, trust, and accountability over time.
• Why do they want the role?
  • Motivation matters. Someone running from fear or instability behaves differently than someone running toward opportunity. That difference doesn’t make either wrong, but it absolutely changes the risk profile.
• Is it the right time in their life?
  • This is the great uncontrollable. Life happens—health issues, family disruption, financial stress. You can’t prevent it, but you can avoid stacking the deck against a hire by ignoring timing altogether.
  • At senior levels, there’s often a hidden fifth issue: The company doesn’t actually know what it needs. When intent is unclear, even strong candidates can fail.

There are no guarantees in hiring.
But there is a disciplined way to hedge your bet.